Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in a recent interview that Ukraine lacks the military strength to recapture Crimea and emphasized the need for diplomatic efforts to resolve the current conflict with Russia. He referred to Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014, as critical for global stability, particularly concerning food supply. Zelensky's shift towards diplomacy aligns with remarks from Ukrainian officials since Donald Trump's recent election, suggesting a change from the previously more confrontational stance during Joe Biden's presidency.
Former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed doubts about Ukraine’s ability to win the war and stated that the situation on the battlefield is grim. He warned that if Ukraine cannot change the current dynamics, it risks losing the war. While acknowledging the hardships, Kuleba pointed out that Ukraine has faced worse situations in the past. He also criticized the focus on what Ukraine should concede in negotiations and emphasized the importance of understanding Putin's willingness to negotiate.
Kuleba pointed out that many global leaders, especially in Africa, fear supporting Ukraine openly due to potential repercussions from Russia. He remarked on China's influence in Africa, indicating the geopolitical complexities surrounding support for Ukraine. Regarding Putin’s mindset, Kuleba believes the Russian leader aims to undermine Ukrainian statehood and independence, complicating prospects for peace.
Zelensky's comments included the notion that diplomatic solutions might come after obtaining significant security guarantees from Western allies to prevent any future Russian aggression. He connected the control of Crimea to broader security in the Black Sea, linking it directly to food security for many regions.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry marked the anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, which offered Ukraine security assurances in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal. They called for the West to fulfill these obligations and provide Ukraine with robust legal security guarantees, rejecting any substitute for full NATO membership.
Discussions of how to end active hostilities have led Zelensky to assert that full NATO membership for Ukraine is essential for peace and security. He remarked that to prevent further escalation and stop the war's "hot phase," Ukraine needs to bring its controlled territories under the NATO protection umbrella quickly.
Kuleba believes that limiting concessions is necessary for Zelensky's political survival since any substantial territory loss or compromise could lead to the end of his presidency. The emphasis remains on the need for strong commitments from NATO and Western powers as Ukraine navigates these complex and pressing issues related to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
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