Ukraine Has Had Its Fill

With important regions and infrastructure lost to Russia, Ukrainian public sentiment is turning against their leaders and the ongoing war. The Russian military is nearing Pokrovsk, a strategic supply hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. Losing Pokrovsk could disrupt supply chains and lead to further unprotected territory for Russian troops. Additionally, it houses Ukraine’s only coking coal mine, vital for steel production, and its loss could lead to a significant reduction in Ukraine's steel manufacturing capabilities.

The conflict's dynamics are shifting quickly. In recent months, Russia has gained over 1,500 square kilometers of territory, and the momentum of their advance has increased. Alongside territorial losses, Ukrainian forces are suffering high casualty rates, which are affecting morale significantly.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted on December 18 that Crimea and the Donbas are essentially lost, recognizing the need for international diplomatic efforts rather than military action to reclaim these regions. This represents a notable shift in Ukraine's strategy amid changing public perceptions.

Sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko notes that public enthusiasm for the war has diminished greatly, with support for negotiations rising as the situation worsens. A recent Gallup poll indicates that the percentage of Ukrainians wishing to continue fighting has dropped from 73% at the beginning of the conflict to just 38%. Conversely, the desire for negotiations has grown from 22% to 52%.

Zelensky's support has also plunged. Earlier highly praised, his approval ratings have fallen from 58% to 42% by October 2023. Current internal polling suggests he might struggle to secure re-election against potential challengers like General Valery Zaluzhny or Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence agency.

Moreover, changing attitudes extend beyond military leadership to perceptions of the United States. While mainstream media has noted the shift towards diplomacy, it has overlooked growing skepticism towards U. S. involvement. Trust in the U. S. has declined; only 54% of Ukrainians favor a U. S. -led peace effort, down from previous high levels of support.

Overall approval of U. S. leadership has dropped from 66% at the war's onset to 40%. Disappointment in the Biden administration has risen, with trust in Trump, who proposes a rapid end to the conflict, increasing to 44. 6%. In comparison, President Biden's trust has declined from 78% to 55%.

Polling indicates that as Ukrainians become weary of the war and their leaders, there is also increasing caution regarding the role of U. S. leadership in the conflict. Despite hopes from the U. S. government that continuing the fight could align with their goals, many Ukrainians are losing confidence that it will lead to similar benefits for them. 

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/ukraine-has-had-its-fill/