Today marks the beginning of 2025, a time for reflection on the past year and thoughts for the future. The year 2024 offered many important lessons regarding human liberty, economics, and international peace. Historically, people have often viewed their time as exceptionally transitional. This perspective, while sometimes seen as a cognitive bias known as "presentism," does hold some truth. History is never static; change constantly occurs at various scales.
Presently, society is undergoing significant changes, including shifts in the American presidential administration and the ongoing transition toward a more industrialized world. However, the adoption of the internet stands out as the most transformative change affecting our historical moment. It has altered political, economic, and geopolitical landscapes significantly.
A year ago, a series of articles discussed this topic, building on a thesis by geopolitical analyst Martin Gurri. Gurri argued that the control of information dissemination determines power dynamics in society. The emergence of writing and literacy in the Agrarian Era established bureaucratic governance. Over centuries, political structures managed to maintain their monopoly on information until the printing press was invented.
The printing press led to major political upheavals such as the Protestant Reformation and revolutions in America and France, as it allowed public opinions to circulate beyond rulers' control. This change shifted between the 1500s and the end of World War I, leading to the creation of modern political systems reliant on print and later broadcast media.
Control over the media remained with a small group that aligned with the establishment, limiting the scope of acceptable public discourse. This allowed political elites to thrive by encouraging divisive debates over narrow issues, ensuring the population remained engaged in conflicts that diverted attention from deeper issues. Without the emergence of the internet, such control might have continued indefinitely.
The internet has significantly undermined this monopoly over information, enabling individuals to communicate directly with audiences without institutional filters. This began in the 1990s with events such as Bill Clinton's impeachment and intensified during the 2010s with responses to financial crises and the election of Donald Trump. The diminished ability of the establishment to control public dialogue has resulted in noticeable political changes.
Trump's 2016 nomination and election served as a wake-up call for political elites, who then intensified efforts to manage discourse through censorship and demonization of dissenting voices. The subsequent chaos during Trump's presidency and his departure amid numerous legal challenges suggested a temporary success for the establishment's strategy to contain him. However, the political landscape remained volatile.
By the end of 2024, it became clear that these strategies failed. Not only did Trump regain popularity, but similar trends were observed globally, with many establishment incumbents facing significant challenges in elections. The political establishment's ability to restrict public discourse has weakened noticeably.
While this opens up possibilities for change, the establishment has not entirely lost power. The adaptation strategies they may pursue include co-opting the anti-establishment movement. During Trump's campaign, traditional conservative elements worked their way into his administration, disguising established foreign policy under a new "America First" label. Similar trends appeared in media attitudes toward Trump and the financial support he received from tech firms.
With increased co-opting efforts, the potential exists for the establishment to steer the anti-establishment sentiment rather than suppress it. This might involve promoting their messages through alternative media rather than traditional outlets. The Trump movement is one part of a broader coalition calling for significant changes in governance.
In essence, 2024 has tested the establishment's resilience; 2025 will challenge the resolve of those fighting for a different political outcome.
https://mises.org/mises-wire/significance-2024-and-challenges-2025
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