California Secretary of State Shirley Weber has allowed a group led by Marcus Ruiz Evans to gather signatures for a proposed secession from the United States. If they collect 546,651 signatures by July 22, the question of California leaving the U. S. will be placed on the 2028 election ballot. To pass, at least 50% of registered voters must participate, and 55% must vote in favor.
Even if voters approve secession, it will not create an immediate change in California's status or government. Instead, a commission will be formed to assess how viable California would be as an independent country. This commission would study issues such as the loss of free trade with other states, potential job losses, and the impact of no longer receiving federal funding for medical expenses.
The proponents of CALEXIT argue that California would be better off alone, as it could promote its leftist values without opposition from other states. They believe that independence would allow the state to change rules regarding guns and fully adopt certain environmental policies without federal restrictions.
However, the U. S. Constitution does not provide a way for states to secede, as stated in Section 1 of Article III of the California Constitution. Polls show a mix of feelings among Californians; while some support secession, many believe it is not possible. An Ipsos poll from 2017 showed that 32% wanted to leave, while a more recent YouGov poll indicated that 61% thought life would improve with peaceful secession, although 62% felt it couldn't happen.
Despite the challenges, California could incur significant costs related to this secession effort. Estimates suggest that preparing for the election and forming a commission could cost taxpayers around $12 million. Marcus Ruiz Evans has previously been linked to similar secession efforts, some of which raised concerns about foreign influences.
Overall, while there is some public interest in the idea of California seceding, the practical and legal obstacles make the likelihood of it happening very slim, and the campaign may result in wasted taxpayer money.
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