Is Biden Teeing Up an Iran War for Trump?

 President Joe Biden has less than a month in his term, and there are concerns about his administration preparing for military action against Iran. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reportedly suggested to Biden plans to bomb Iranian nuclear sites before his term ends. There is a belief among Biden's team that he has both the need and the chance to act against Iran now. Meanwhile, former Biden official Richard Nephew argued that the situation may require the U. S. to attack Iran soon, showing a shift in perspective among some Democrats who previously criticized Trump's hostile approach to Iran.

This situation mirrors discussions within the Trump administration during its final year, where military options against Iran were considered. There are worries that if Biden were to initiate conflict at the end of his term, it would exceed his presidential authority, something Biden's team criticized Trump for. During Trump’s presidency, Biden and others claimed that unilateral military actions would undermine a smooth transition of power.

Biden's advisers now seem to be using the reduction in Iranian threats to justify potential military actions. Since Israel has weakened Iranian forces in the region, there are claims that Iran might respond by pursuing a nuclear weapon. Sullivan has argued that Iran's current weakness could lead to diminished Iranian retaliation to an attack, which poses a risky gamble.

Nephew, while warming up to the idea of military action, acknowledged that bombing Iran's nuclear facilities might not solve the problem permanently and could require ongoing military involvement. This is likened to the U. S. military’s commitment to Iraq in the early 1990s, which started as a limited intervention but later escalated into a prolonged military presence.

There is a critical distinction between the proposed actions today and in 1991, as the U. S. would be initiating the attack rather than responding to an aggression. U. S. officials have not clearly defined what would provoke a military response regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Despite a recent intelligence report suggesting Iran has not yet decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, there have been warnings that U. S. would retaliate even if Iran were just nearing that capability.

Biden's administration has hinted at serious military commitments without consulting the public. Threats to Iran have been communicated through private channels, and Congress has not voted on any plans for military action against Iran, having previously rejected such measures in early 2020. Biden himself has stressed the importance of Congressional approval for military actions, stating that the president cannot unilaterally decide to go to war.

https://reason.com/2025/01/03/is-biden-teeing-up-an-iran-war-for-trump/