In their report, MISO forecasts a demand increase of 60 GW, or 32%, by 2042. At the same time, MISO expects much of their current baseload capacity to retire. And despite new renewable generation planned for construction, MISO expects to see a net capacity decline of 32 GW (@18%)
Despite new renewable generation planned for construction, MISO expects to see a net capacity decline of 32 GW. "Because new wind and solar resources have significantly lower accreditation values than the conventional resources that utilities and states plan to retire in the same 20-year period, the region's level of accredited capacity is forecast to decline by 32 GW by 2042" MISO stated.
PJM expects 58 GW of current capacity to retire by 2032, which is approximately 30% of the total current capacity of 196 GW). This amount of capacity loss is despite peak forecasted demand increasing by 43 GW above current capacity.
The Rule mandates a 90% reduction in carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants that choose the use of Carbon Capture and Storage technology and is expected to further reduce coal-fired steam generating unit capacity from 181 gigawatts in 2023 to 52 GW in 2035, of which 11 GW includes retrofit carbon capture and storage.
Anyone with even a basic understanding of math or economics can see that forced shutdowns of so much baseload capacity and its replacement with intermittent wind and solar is sheer insanity.
Replacement renewable generation capacity, as well as transmission capacity would have to be build.
As Lane noted in her brief, "PJM has quantified the ability of wind and solar resources to serve load for delivery years 2026/27 through 2034/35: replacing 1,000 MW of coal-fired capacity will require either 4,200 MW of onshore wind, 2,500 MW of more expensive offshore wind, 21,400 MW of fixed solar, or 15,500 MW of more expensive tracking solar."
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