The virus will spread longer, but in the end fewer people will die.
"Exponential growth" entered the lexicon of people who had never taken a statistics course, as charts of coronavirus cases accelerating made their way around the web.
It isn't clear how much lower - studies disagree - but most of the serological studies find an implied fatality rate lower than the 1% used to arrive at the conclusion that 2 million people would die if the virus were allowed to run its course.
A few weeks later, he retweeted an article that suggested we would need as many as 35 million tests per day before people could return to work.
It might make more sense to retain restrictions in a place like New York City, but Mayor de Blasio's move to arrest people gathering in large groups seems discordant when cases in New York are receding.
Perhaps the strongest statement of the "Crush the curve" point of view comes from an article published in The Atlantic, with the headline "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice," with the subtitle "The state is about to find out how many people need to lose their lives to shore up the economy." Infections in Georgia appear to be trending downward, and it is beginning to reopen its economy, including gyms and hair salons.
Regardless, we ought not pretend that we don't weigh a substantial number of lives against the economy every year, and occasionally make decisions that will undoubtedly "Sacrifice" people.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/03/policy_and_punditry_need_to_adapt_to_new_virus_data_143102.html
"Exponential growth" entered the lexicon of people who had never taken a statistics course, as charts of coronavirus cases accelerating made their way around the web.
It isn't clear how much lower - studies disagree - but most of the serological studies find an implied fatality rate lower than the 1% used to arrive at the conclusion that 2 million people would die if the virus were allowed to run its course.
A few weeks later, he retweeted an article that suggested we would need as many as 35 million tests per day before people could return to work.
It might make more sense to retain restrictions in a place like New York City, but Mayor de Blasio's move to arrest people gathering in large groups seems discordant when cases in New York are receding.
Perhaps the strongest statement of the "Crush the curve" point of view comes from an article published in The Atlantic, with the headline "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice," with the subtitle "The state is about to find out how many people need to lose their lives to shore up the economy." Infections in Georgia appear to be trending downward, and it is beginning to reopen its economy, including gyms and hair salons.
Regardless, we ought not pretend that we don't weigh a substantial number of lives against the economy every year, and occasionally make decisions that will undoubtedly "Sacrifice" people.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/03/policy_and_punditry_need_to_adapt_to_new_virus_data_143102.html
No comments:
Post a Comment