The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced its updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, maintaining a prediction of below-average activity.
NOAA forecasts 7 to 13 named storms, with 2 to 6 hurricanes, including 0 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
This outlook is influenced by a very strong El Niño climate pattern, expected to persist through fall, which suppresses tropical storm development in the Atlantic.
The current forecast shows a slight reduction from the earlier estimate of 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.
NOAA has increased the likelihood of a below-average season from 55% to 75%.
Typically, an average hurricane season sees 14 named storms, with 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
If 2026 ends up being below-normal, it would be only the second such season in ten years.
Overall, the NOAA's forecast indicates a quieter hurricane season for 2026, but warns that even fewer storms can still have significant impacts.
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