While climate change has been blamed for the phenomenon, sound analysis, as opposed to uninformed speculation, has been lacking.
The spike in temperatures over the past year has been much in the news, with dozens if not hundreds of “record-breaking month/record-breaking year/record-breaking streak” stories making headlines in the mainstream media.
Vinos explains that “El Niño is unlikely to be responsible for the simple reason that such abrupt global warming is unprecedented in our records.” El Niño, he explains, normally has large, but still largely regional, rather than global, effects.
Neither is the recent cause de jour, the decrease in emissions of sulfate aerosols from cleaner shipping fuels.
Rather, he suggests the massive increase in water vapor into the stratosphere from the Hunga Tonga eruption is the most likely culprit for the increase and, as water vapor draws down, so will temperatures, meaning the present increase is not a new normal; meaning that no climate catastrophe is in the offing.
In addition, El Niño has happened many times in the past without inducing the kind of large-scale global warming experienced in 2023.
These facts, he argues, suggest the enormous Hunga Tonga sub-surface volcanic eruption is responsible for the temperature spike.
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