National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins, subsequently interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, provided this caveat: "It would not be particularly encouraging if we have a vaccine that's capable of protecting 20-year-olds who probably have a pretty low risk anyway of getting sick, and doesn't work at all for people over 65." Oxford University vaccine researcher and Regius Professor of Medicine Sir John Bell recently lamented that as COVID-19 cases rapidly dwindle in the U.K.,"You wouldn't start in London now for sure." Bell added that scientists might have to "Chase" the virus around the nation for the vaccine trials to be successful.
Absent tenable vaccination programs, what alternative strategy might be deployed to blunt the advance of COVID-19? It is the same goal as of a successful vaccine - achieving "Herd immunity."
An important added observation extended the concept of herd immunity beyond prevention of symptomatic infection to include protection against non-fatal and certainly less morbid illness: "This immunity may be acquired latently, without illness, and, even if not always enough to prevent symptomatic infection, may be such that severity and fatality are decreased."
Such oversimplified HIT calculation methodology, and the goal of disease-eradication/near-eradication, now frames the discussion of herd immunity against COVID-19.
Stanford Professor of Epidemiology John Ioannidis' 5/19/20 analysis of COVID-19 IFRs from 12 large population studies that surveyed the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in blood, each with at least 500 sampled, found: 7/12 with a corrected IFR range of 0.06%-0.16%, like seasonal flu; 3/12 modestly higher, 0.25%-0.40%; and 2/12 modestly lower, 0.02%-0.03%. COVID-19 summary IFRs in these much less than calamitous ranges should raise more questions, beyond unproven safety and efficacy, about the urgency of vaccine development, and certainly mass deployment.
Using mortality data available through May 8, 2020, U.S. children 0-14 years old were ~7 times more likely to die from influenza this year, despite vaccination programs, than from COVID-19.
Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly - especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents - is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus.
Absent tenable vaccination programs, what alternative strategy might be deployed to blunt the advance of COVID-19? It is the same goal as of a successful vaccine - achieving "Herd immunity."
An important added observation extended the concept of herd immunity beyond prevention of symptomatic infection to include protection against non-fatal and certainly less morbid illness: "This immunity may be acquired latently, without illness, and, even if not always enough to prevent symptomatic infection, may be such that severity and fatality are decreased."
Such oversimplified HIT calculation methodology, and the goal of disease-eradication/near-eradication, now frames the discussion of herd immunity against COVID-19.
Stanford Professor of Epidemiology John Ioannidis' 5/19/20 analysis of COVID-19 IFRs from 12 large population studies that surveyed the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in blood, each with at least 500 sampled, found: 7/12 with a corrected IFR range of 0.06%-0.16%, like seasonal flu; 3/12 modestly higher, 0.25%-0.40%; and 2/12 modestly lower, 0.02%-0.03%. COVID-19 summary IFRs in these much less than calamitous ranges should raise more questions, beyond unproven safety and efficacy, about the urgency of vaccine development, and certainly mass deployment.
Using mortality data available through May 8, 2020, U.S. children 0-14 years old were ~7 times more likely to die from influenza this year, despite vaccination programs, than from COVID-19.
Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly - especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents - is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus.
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