Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Will Governors Make The Same Mistake Twice With Lockdowns?

The lockdowns had no real impact on the virus' spread. But they did have a devastating impact on the economies where they were introduced.

"Even if lockdowns were the best strategy, the authorities, espousing and imposing them repeatedly, undermined their legitimacy," wrote former U.S. Treasury official J.T. Young on The Hill web site.

"Authorities have so discredited the lockdowns that there is little chance lockdowns can be reimposed at their prior level - even if they are needed."

The long-term cost in dollars of the pandemic lockdowns are enormous, even if we see a rapid snapback in economic activity.

One widely reported forecast by Cambridge University's business school provided a best-case five-year lockdown cost estimate of $550 billion for the U.S., or about 0.4% of GDP. The worst-case: a $19.9 trillion GDP loss, or a whopping 13.6% of GDP over five years.

This isn't just true for the U.S. The world economy has been shattered by lockdowns.

Economic lockdowns will do nothing to further reduce deaths.

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