Friday, August 16, 2019

The global economy isn’t healthy, and everything isn’t hunky dory. But the trade issue is the icing on the cake, not the main story.

  1. The stock market didn’t drop Wednesday because of curve inversion, it dropped because economic data out of Europe and China overnight was absolutely terrible—which is also what caused longer maturity Treasury yields to drop even further, which is what caused the curve inversion.
  2. The financial media, too, has been acting like the entire economy and stock market is being driven by the trade war with China.
  3. But it is interesting that in the last decade, while central banks created this mess, you didn’t hear a peep from the elites or most of the folks who now make up “Never Trump.” You also didn’t hear a peep from this crowd over the last three decades, while China was allowed to grow into the monstrosity that it is today.
  4. The stock market didn’t drop Wednesday because of curve inversion, it dropped because economic data out of Europe and China overnight was terrible.
  5. The U.S. economy has actually been outperforming most of the rest of the world, and the 25 percent tariff the White House placed on $250 billion of annual Chinese imports hasn’t shown up significantly in consumer prices, even though the establishment promised it would.
  6. For example, the media has repeatedly blamed the trade war for low soybean prices, even though prices have been low since 2014, and even though there is a big non-trade explanation for China demanding less soybeans.


https://thefederalist.com/2019/08/16/blaming-every-bad-economic-indicator-trade-war-just-proves-dont-know-youre-talking/

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