As the survey stated in its section on the economy: "Compared with results in the February 2019 survey, respondents, on balance, expect the next U.S. recession to occur later." In other words: The survey shows an improved outlook regarding recession.
Respondents predicting a recession this year dropped from ten percent to two percent.
Presuming these more optimistic respondents must put their predictions somewhere, they moved them to 2021, causing this later estimation to rise from 25 percent to 34 percent.
Finally, those predicting the next recession would be even later moved up from 11 percent to 14 percent.
Regarding NABE's 2007 survey, a September Reuters story that year stated: "Projected 2008 growth was cut to 2.8 percent from 3.1 percent, with reductions concentrated in the first half. Still, many thought that recession, while a risk, could most likely be avoided. Only a third of respondents guessed that 'domino effects' were under way where losses in the subprime mortgage market would spread to many other sectors." Really?
The "Reductions" actually fell more in the second half; while Q1 shrank 2.3 percent, Q3 fell 2.1 and Q4, 8.4 percent.
All told, beginning in 2008, the economy contracted in five of the next six quarters, and 2009 annual GDP fell 2.5 percent.
https://spectator.org/recession-headlines-in-search-of-a-story/
Respondents predicting a recession this year dropped from ten percent to two percent.
Presuming these more optimistic respondents must put their predictions somewhere, they moved them to 2021, causing this later estimation to rise from 25 percent to 34 percent.
Finally, those predicting the next recession would be even later moved up from 11 percent to 14 percent.
Regarding NABE's 2007 survey, a September Reuters story that year stated: "Projected 2008 growth was cut to 2.8 percent from 3.1 percent, with reductions concentrated in the first half. Still, many thought that recession, while a risk, could most likely be avoided. Only a third of respondents guessed that 'domino effects' were under way where losses in the subprime mortgage market would spread to many other sectors." Really?
The "Reductions" actually fell more in the second half; while Q1 shrank 2.3 percent, Q3 fell 2.1 and Q4, 8.4 percent.
All told, beginning in 2008, the economy contracted in five of the next six quarters, and 2009 annual GDP fell 2.5 percent.
https://spectator.org/recession-headlines-in-search-of-a-story/
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