The Conference Board, while recognizing risks to the economy, is still forecasting real GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund, in a July report, forecasts global growth to expand to 3.5 percent in 2020, with the U.S. economy expected to expand at 1.9 percent.
The most recent forecast of the Federal Open Market Committee calls for 2 percent growth in real GDP in 2020, compared with 2.1 percent in 2019.
These projections come from current economic indicators, none of which is signaling a recession in the months ahead. The current economic environment-low and declining interest rates, stable prices, modest quarter-to-quarter economic growth, the absence of wars abroad-does not suggest a recession-oriented climate.
America's economy has been expanding at modest annual rates since the last recession ended in mid-2009-but the U.S. has not achieved an annual growth rate of 3 percent over the course of the current recovery.
At ten years and counting, the current recovery is now the longest on record-but also one of the weakest, with real GDP expanding by just 25 percent over the course of the decade, compared with 43 percent during the ten-year expansion from 1991 to 2001 and 52 percent over the eight-year expansion from 1961 to 1969.
In the mid-sixties, U.S. GDP grew by 6 percent per year, and in the mid-1990s by 4 percent per year, compared with the 2 percent to 3 percent growth rates over the past decade.
https://www.city-journal.org/recession-talk
The International Monetary Fund, in a July report, forecasts global growth to expand to 3.5 percent in 2020, with the U.S. economy expected to expand at 1.9 percent.
The most recent forecast of the Federal Open Market Committee calls for 2 percent growth in real GDP in 2020, compared with 2.1 percent in 2019.
These projections come from current economic indicators, none of which is signaling a recession in the months ahead. The current economic environment-low and declining interest rates, stable prices, modest quarter-to-quarter economic growth, the absence of wars abroad-does not suggest a recession-oriented climate.
America's economy has been expanding at modest annual rates since the last recession ended in mid-2009-but the U.S. has not achieved an annual growth rate of 3 percent over the course of the current recovery.
At ten years and counting, the current recovery is now the longest on record-but also one of the weakest, with real GDP expanding by just 25 percent over the course of the decade, compared with 43 percent during the ten-year expansion from 1991 to 2001 and 52 percent over the eight-year expansion from 1961 to 1969.
In the mid-sixties, U.S. GDP grew by 6 percent per year, and in the mid-1990s by 4 percent per year, compared with the 2 percent to 3 percent growth rates over the past decade.
https://www.city-journal.org/recession-talk
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