Coal's Contribution During Crises (2014-2025)
- 2014 Polar Vortex
- Record winter peak electric demands across the US.
- Coal provided most electricity, increasing 92% year-over-year.
- Oil (12%), Wind (9%), and Nuclear (7%) also increased; Natural gas (NG) decreased (6%).
- Hydro declined (15%); Solar was not significant.
- NG prices exceeded $100/MMBtu; New England used jet fuel.
- 2019 Cold Event
- Severe cold wave led to fatalities in East and Midwest.
- Coal power accounted for 37% in the PJM region; renewables only 7%.
- In MISO region, coal provided 50% of electricity and operated at 73% capacity.
- 2021 Winter Storm Uri
- Extreme cold forced emergency load reduction in MISO.
- Coal generation increased by 36% and met nearly 50% of demand.
- Solar was virtually absent; wind generation output was low.
- NG prices soared from under $3 to $700/MMBtu.
- 2024 Winter Storm
- Multiple cold fronts set low-temperature records.
- Coal-fired power plants saw the most significant utilization increase.
- Wind and solar faced challenges during the storms.
- 2025 Polar Vortex
- Demand reached 537 GW in January, the highest ever recorded.
- Coal-fired generation had a capacity factor of 70%.
- Wind and solar generated only 3% and 0. 2% of electricity, respectively.
- NG prices spiked to $30/MMBtu; coal prices were $2. 50.
- Coal estimated to have saved customers $1. 4 billion.
EIA's 2025 Annual Energy Outlook
- EIA projects coal will be largely removed from US energy landscape in 10 years.
- Coal capacity to decline from 170 GW to 3 GW (98% drop).
- Coal expected to produce less than 1% of US electricity by 2035.
- Coal production to fall from 500 million tons to 167 million tons.
- Solar capacity to increase from 127 GW to 476 GW; generation from 200 billion kWh to 1,000 billion kWh.
- Wind capacity projected to rise from 153 GW to 350 GW; generation from 447 billion kWh to 1,150 billion kWh.
International Trends and Future Outlook
- Increased reliance on intermittent and non-dispatchable power as nuclear and NG decline.
- Countries like China and India investing in reliable baseload units, especially coal, for AI and Data Centers.
- Warning from Potomac Economic Research Group about increased emergency events due to intermittent output.
Industry Response and Challenges
- Skepticism about EIA projections due to political support for coal from President Trump.
- Historical decline in coal capacity from 300 GW to 170 GW in the last decade.
- Ongoing “War Against Coal” heavily funded by multi-billionaires.
- Significant legal and organizational efforts against coal, including 200 hired lawyers and activists.
- Potential for further decline in coal industry as highlighted by EIA's projections.
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