Into the Abyss: How Bad Can the Covid Vaccine Story Get?

 

Claims and Their Problems

1. Excess Death Attribution to Vaccines (18–30 million)

   • Flawed Attribution Logic: Attributing most post-2020 excess deaths to vaccines assumes a causality that isn’t demonstrated with direct evidence. Most epidemiologists and public health researchers attribute excess deaths from 2021 onward to a mix of delayed medical care, long COVID, mental health crises, economic disruption, and other indirect pandemic effects.

   • Rancourt et al. Study Criticism: The study cited (17 million deaths) has been widely criticized for serious methodological flaws, including oversimplified modeling, selective country data, and failure to adjust for key confounders.

   • VAERS Data Misuse: VAERS is a passive, unverified reporting system. Its data cannot be used to estimate incidence rates without rigorous adjudication, which this analysis lacks. Overreporting, underreporting, and misattribution are all common and known problems with VAERS data.

   • No plausible biological mechanism supports a sudden global spike in vaccine-caused deaths at the scale implied.

2. Fertility Declines (27–200 million “lost” births)

   • Misinterpretation of Trends: Fertility was declining globally well before the pandemic, especially in higher-income nations. Lockdowns, economic uncertainty, and social disruptions are more likely explanations than vaccination.

   • Studies Claiming Huge Fertility Drops: Some reports showing large drops (like 30% reductions) are based on very small samples or fail to adjust for confounders such as pandemic stress, postponement of pregnancies, or changes in relationship patterns.

   • No solid evidence from large-scale longitudinal studies suggests that COVID-19 vaccines cause permanent female infertility.

3. Future Excess Death/Fertility Collapse Predictions

   • Speculative Extrapolation: Estimating 13 million future deaths and 180–200 million future “missing” babies involves stacking multiple speculative assumptions (e.g., % with permanent spike protein expression, future risk equivalency, etc.).

   • Permanent Spike Protein Expression: While long-term expression in some cells has been noted, it's not evidence of widespread permanent damage. Such findings are preliminary, small-scale, and not representative.

   • Confusing Long COVID with Vaccine Injury: Claiming “7% of global adults have long vaccine” based on overlaps with long COVID prevalence is unsupported and misleading.

What the Scientific Consensus Shows

• Vaccine Safety: Large-scale studies and global surveillance confirm that serious adverse events from mRNA vaccines are rare. Known risks (e.g., myocarditis in young males) are significantly outweighed by the benefits in preventing severe COVID-19.

• Pregnancy and Fertility: Multiple high-quality studies show that COVID-19 vaccines do not reduce fertility or increase miscarriage risk. In contrast, COVID-19 illness itself poses risks to pregnancy and fertility.

• Excess Deaths: Most credible excess death analyses (e.g., by The Economist, WHO, and national statistical offices) find pandemic-related disruptions, not vaccines, to be the major drivers.

What to Watch For in Such Arguments

• Cherry-Picking: Isolated studies, often preprints or non-peer-reviewed, are used to support dramatic conclusions.

• Correlation ≠ Causation: Deaths occurring after vaccination are not automatically caused by it. Large populations will always include coincidental adverse outcomes.

• Stacked Speculation: Compounding assumptions to reach massive numbers (e.g., “if 1/3 of 20% of 50%...”) produces big figures without strong foundational evidence.

The worst-case scenario outlined—claiming tens of millions of deaths and hundreds of millions of missing or future-lost lives—is not supported by credible empirical evidence. It mixes circumstantial data, speculative extrapolation, and known misuses of data sources like VAERS. While it's crucial to monitor vaccine safety continuously, and some adverse effects are real and serious for small subgroups, there is no scientific basis for calling the COVID-19 vaccination campaign the “worst man-made disaster in history.”

https://brownstone.org/articles/into-the-abyss-how-bad-can-the-covid-vaccine-story-get/