Thursday, July 31, 2025

Mother O’ Mercy! Is This the End of the Cal Bullet Train?

California High-Speed Rail Project

- Began as a statewide voter referendum in 2008

- Intended to fund a high-speed rail system from San Francisco to Los Angeles

- Has become a financial burden with no completed railroad

Recent Developments

- Trump administration announced withdrawal of $4 billion from the project

- Trump criticized the project as a "train to nowhere"

- California Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to sue for reinstatement of funds

Financial Concerns

- Initial estimated cost in 2008: $33 billion

- Current estimated cost: $130 billion, with no operational parts

- Earliest completion projection for Central Valley line: 2030 to 2033

- Project has missed all deadlines

Challenges in Construction

- Construction is ongoing in Central Valley, but more than 300 miles remain

- Major geographic challenges including mountains and required tunneling

- Planned tunnels at Pacheco Pass and through the Tehachapi Mountains not in preliminary planning

Future Cost Projections

- Significant financial obstacles ahead, especially in more complex terrains

- Estimated costs could rise to nearly $250 billion, possibly underestimated

- Current California state budget: $321 billion

Funding Difficulties

- Lack of prospect for private investment complicates funding

- Governor Newsom faces pressure between project funding and addressing other state priorities

- Potential impact on public-employee pensions and healthcare for undocumented immigrants

Future of the Bullet Train

- Full completion of the project is unlikely

- Democrats will push to complete the 171-mile stretch to avoid political backlash

- Potential for the completed segment to be the least traveled high-speed line in the world

- Completion might be declared a success by future governors despite financial implications

Historical Context

- California's politicians display significant misjudgment regarding the project

- Current state of the project may serve as a warning about the consequences of ignoring economic realities

- The California bullet train serves as a cautionary tale for future infrastructure projects

- Need to respect economic laws to avoid dire financial outcomes 

https://mises.org/mises-wire/mother-o-mercy-end-cal-bullet-train

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