Neil Howe, a demographer, discusses current global changes through the lens of his theory of "turnings. " He believes that societies go through predictable cycles, and America is currently in a "Fourth Turning," marked by upheaval and the collapse of the existing order, as exemplified by the actions of the Trump administration.
• Howe identifies the Fourth Turning as a chaotic phase where the old systems break down and new ones emerge.
• The Trump administration's disruptive policies, including "America First" initiatives, are seen as indicative of this Fourth Turning.
• There is a notable global shift from globalization to nationalism, with similar movements occurring in other countries.
• Howe discusses the public’s support for re-industrialization and immigration control as reflecting a desire for economic independence and cultural identity.
• This chaotic phase is not limited to the U. S. ; it is a global trend with rising populism and authoritarianism.
• Howe predicts increasing volatility and potential crises that could reshape institutions by the 2030s, suggesting that significant conflict may be necessary for change.
• He advises investors to focus on absolute returns and to prepare for turmoil by investing in commodities, gold, and infrastructure.
• Howe believes Trump’s legacy will be a transformed America, but the resolution of this Fourth Turningthrough internal crisis or external conflictwill shape the future public order.
Overall, Howe emphasizes the transformative nature of current events, suggesting that navigating this tumultuous period requires resilience and strategic investment. The outcome of the Fourth Turning will significantly influence future historical developments and societal structures.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fourth-turning-now-raging-and-neil-howe-warns-its-gone-global
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