Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Follow The Science - 1.2 Million COVID Deaths Edition

1 million or 1.2 million deaths worldwide sounds like a big number and on its own you can use it to club "Covidiots" into silence, that is, until you actually look at it.

If we take the 1.2 million COVID deaths worldwide, at it's face, the obvious question then becomes "Is that good or bad?".

The most useful signal we can get from a global COVID death toll is how it compares to what is called the "Absolute Fatality Rates" globally, which is simply the rate of all fatalities from all causes.

They may dismiss it without considering how closely the lockdown approach toward reducing COVID fatalities is analogous to a worldwide ban on alcohol to eliminate alcohol related deaths would be.

If we were in for a 1918-style Second Wave fatality overrun, we would see it in the data.

For the fatalities to come in anywhere near the Second Wave of 1918 scenario, the slope of the fatality line needs to blast off in a near vertical line right now.

If not true, and we're about to experience a Second Wave of fatalities, it would be impossible to occur without seeing it in the data and right now, all of the data, everywhere is showing either a moderate rise with seasonality, or an aggregate, overall decrease in fatalities.
 

https://outofthecave.io/articles/follow-the-science-1-2-million-covid-deaths-edition/ 

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