If a so-called "Blue wave" is about to hit in 2018, why isn't the generic ballot showing a bigger margin for Democrats? The latest Real Clear Politics average shows Democrats with a 6.5 percent lead. The FiveThirtyEight.com average has Democrats with a 6.9 percent lead. If Democrats are cruising to victory in the fall, why does the generic not look more like it did over the summer when it showed Democrats with a double-digit lead?
In March, 48 percent said they'd like to see Democrats win control of Congress to just 38 percent who said they'd want Republicans in control.
In April, 46 percent wanted to see Democrats in control, while 43 percent picked the GOP. What does this mean? It means that Republicans are "Coming home." Even in a terrible year for the GOP, they are not going to perform much worse in the national vote than 43-44 percent.
Overall, about one-third to 40 percent of self-described independent voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president.
On the generic ballot question in that same poll, the congressional Republican gets 32 percent of the independent vote.
In 2008, Republicans took 43 percent of the independent vote, but Democrats also made up a larger share of the electorate in 2008 than in 2006.
The latest Marist poll finds 40 percent of independent voters 'strongly' disapprove of the job Trump is doing, compared with just 20 percent who 'strongly' approve.
http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead
In March, 48 percent said they'd like to see Democrats win control of Congress to just 38 percent who said they'd want Republicans in control.
In April, 46 percent wanted to see Democrats in control, while 43 percent picked the GOP. What does this mean? It means that Republicans are "Coming home." Even in a terrible year for the GOP, they are not going to perform much worse in the national vote than 43-44 percent.
Overall, about one-third to 40 percent of self-described independent voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president.
On the generic ballot question in that same poll, the congressional Republican gets 32 percent of the independent vote.
In 2008, Republicans took 43 percent of the independent vote, but Democrats also made up a larger share of the electorate in 2008 than in 2006.
The latest Marist poll finds 40 percent of independent voters 'strongly' disapprove of the job Trump is doing, compared with just 20 percent who 'strongly' approve.
http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/if-democrats-are-doing-so-great-why-dont-they-have-bigger-lead
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