According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the current "Best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent.
Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it-far lower than the infection fatality rates assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.
It assumes an overall symptomatic case fatality rate of 0.4 percent, falling to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rising to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older.
It therefore implies that the IFR is between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent.
The current crude CFR for New York is nearly 8 percent, compared to 4.4 percent in Florida.
Antibody tests suggest the IFR in New York is something like 0.6 percent, compared to 0.2 percent in the Miami area.
If you focus on hard-hit areas such as New York and New Jersey, an IFR between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, as suggested by the CDC's current best estimate, seems improbably low.
https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/
Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it-far lower than the infection fatality rates assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.
It assumes an overall symptomatic case fatality rate of 0.4 percent, falling to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rising to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older.
It therefore implies that the IFR is between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent.
The current crude CFR for New York is nearly 8 percent, compared to 4.4 percent in Florida.
Antibody tests suggest the IFR in New York is something like 0.6 percent, compared to 0.2 percent in the Miami area.
If you focus on hard-hit areas such as New York and New Jersey, an IFR between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, as suggested by the CDC's current best estimate, seems improbably low.
https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/
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