New alliances with Arab nations are positive but unstable, and old enemies are most dangerous when in a weakened state.
One of the most radical changes in the labyrinth of the Middle East is the near cessation of the old formal hostility of the Arab nations to Israel.
If there exists a continuing strategic threat to Israel from the Arab world, it will be its increasing pressure on the Jewish state to get into a one-on-one fight with Iran.
Even more important: While the U.S. can no longer be manipulated by the Arab world, the latter certainly can be by the U.S., given that the exporting lifeblood of the Gulf requires free passage through the Straits of Hormuz, the guarantee of which is beyond all the collective naval and air resources of Arab nations.
Third, in terms of strategic space, Israel's most recent major enemies, Iran and Turkey, are distant, not on its immediate borders as in the past, and both are alienated from the U.S. More fundamentally, Iran and Turkey border a few Arab states, not Israel - a fact that reinforces the worry over Iranian nuclear weapons to come.
One reason there is oddly little Middle East criticism of Trump's restored tilt to Israel is that the Arab world views the realignment as a useful slap at Iran and Turkey, and a strategic enhancement to nuclear Israel, which the Arabs, privately, believe really would never preemptively strike any Arab capital with a nuke.
For now, Israel does not face simultaneous existential threats from both Iran and the Arab world.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/israel-new-alliances-dangerous-old-enemies/
One of the most radical changes in the labyrinth of the Middle East is the near cessation of the old formal hostility of the Arab nations to Israel.
If there exists a continuing strategic threat to Israel from the Arab world, it will be its increasing pressure on the Jewish state to get into a one-on-one fight with Iran.
Even more important: While the U.S. can no longer be manipulated by the Arab world, the latter certainly can be by the U.S., given that the exporting lifeblood of the Gulf requires free passage through the Straits of Hormuz, the guarantee of which is beyond all the collective naval and air resources of Arab nations.
Third, in terms of strategic space, Israel's most recent major enemies, Iran and Turkey, are distant, not on its immediate borders as in the past, and both are alienated from the U.S. More fundamentally, Iran and Turkey border a few Arab states, not Israel - a fact that reinforces the worry over Iranian nuclear weapons to come.
One reason there is oddly little Middle East criticism of Trump's restored tilt to Israel is that the Arab world views the realignment as a useful slap at Iran and Turkey, and a strategic enhancement to nuclear Israel, which the Arabs, privately, believe really would never preemptively strike any Arab capital with a nuke.
For now, Israel does not face simultaneous existential threats from both Iran and the Arab world.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/israel-new-alliances-dangerous-old-enemies/
No comments:
Post a Comment