Sunday, February 24, 2019

US-China Talks Hit A Snag: How To Enforce Any Deal

"We have a deal on currency manipulation," Trump told reporters during an Oval Office meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the head of a large Chinese delegation that's in Washington for talks aimed at defusing the U.S.-China trade war.

There is just one problem: like most other "Deals" reached between the US and China in the ongoing trade war, this one too may not have been worth the paper it has yet to be printed on, because as Bloomberg reports, the two sides haven't yet agreed on the critical issue of enforcement in a proposed currency deal that would ensure Beijing lives up to its promise to not depreciate the yuan, four people familiar with the matter said.

U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer said any deal with China needs to contain a strong enforcement mechanism to ensure long-lasting changes to the trading relationship.

One option to "Enforce" the currency deal is the possibility for the U.S. to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing breaks its word, in other words the so-called deal that is about to be reached, will be contingent on China never again suffering another major currency outflow, economic contraction, or major monetary or fiscal stimulus both of which would send the Yuan sharply lower.

In tweets early Sunday President Donald Trump declared Saturday's talks "Very productive" and offered praise for Chinese President Xi Jinping leading into this week's meeting with North Korea Kim Jong Un. Very productive talks yesterday with China on Trade.

As the Journal reported late on Friday, "China hawks in the business community, the administration and in Congress say they are troubled by what they see as Mr. Trump's growing impatience for a deal, and are urging him to stand firm and insist China make fundamental changes in its industrial policies."

In the end it will be all up to Trump: how does he spin a watered-down version of a deal with China, one without major concessions from Beijing, with some vague promise to import a $1 trillion in US products over the next decade without any specifics, and without an enforceable pledge on what the White House dubs currency manipulation, as a "Victory" without disappointing his core supporters who have seen the ongoing US-China trade war increasingly as the framework of an ideological battle between the two superpowers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-24/us-china-talks-hit-snag-how-enforce-deal

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