Earlier this month the Wall Street Journal posted the results of its August Survey of economists conducted August 3-6 (xls file).
Let's take another look at their estimates for 10-year yields. The
various Federal Reserve strategies in recent years (ZIRP, QE1, QE2 and
Operation Twist) have focused on lowering interest rates, for which the
10-year note yield is an interesting "tell".
The 51 economists solicited for the latest survey were asked for their estimates for 10-year yields at six month intervals from June 2012 to December 2014. Not all of them participated, and responses dwindled a bit for the further out dates. The second chart below captures the ranges of responses for each of the six timeframes. But before we look at that chart, let's refresh our memory on the recent history of the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, weekly data, through last week's close.
The 51 economists solicited for the latest survey were asked for their estimates for 10-year yields at six month intervals from June 2012 to December 2014. Not all of them participated, and responses dwindled a bit for the further out dates. The second chart below captures the ranges of responses for each of the six timeframes. But before we look at that chart, let's refresh our memory on the recent history of the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, weekly data, through last week's close.
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