In general, a strong El Niño event is often characterized by ONI values reaching or exceeding +2.0°C. A Super Strong El Niño would typically involve sustained ONI value of +2.0°C or more.
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features.
Climate model outlooks suggest El Niño has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.
Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024.
Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events.
In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024.
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