Although Democrats see the seat as a prime pickup opportunity, recent polls have shown their nominee, former Rep. Tom Suozzi, locked in a tight race with Republican Mazi Pilip, who has sought to tie him to President Biden's policies, especially on immigration.
Democrats have described Suozzi as a familiar face for New York's 3rd Congressional District who has developed a reputation as a moderate well-suited to represent the district's constituents.
Democrats still expressed optimism about Suozzi winning but recognized the race likely will be tight given the realities of the district.
Tobias, who served as a senior adviser to the progressive PAC Justice Democrats, argued Republicans are trying to set immigration as the defining issue of the race, but Democrats should not buy into that.
"If Suozzi loses, Democrats should be very concerned about November. A Suozzi defeat means that Republicans may have found their winning formula for swing districts in November: Tie the Democrat to President Biden and the border crisis," they said.
If Suozzi wins, Bonier said, it would be a "Good sign" that Democrats are equipped with the right strategy for success in 2024.
New York's 3rd District is one of five House seats in the state Republicans currently hold that Democrats see as key to their strategy to win back the majority.
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