To normalize for an unambiguous comparison of deaths between states at the midpoint of an epidemic, we counted deaths per million population for a fixed 21-day period, measured from when the death rate first hit 1 per million-e.g.,‒three deaths in Iowa or 19 in New York state.
We ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus-10 days to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown.
No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York.
Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown-but blindly copying New York's policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn't make sense.
Since people over 65 account for about 80% of Covid-19 deaths, Sweden asked only seniors to shelter in place rather than shutting down the rest of the country; and since Sweden had no pediatric deaths, it didn't shut down elementary and middle schools.
How did the Swedes do? They suffered 80 deaths per million 21 days after crossing the 1 per million threshold level.
With 10 million people, Sweden's death rate‒without a shutdown and massive unemployment‒is lower than that of the seven hardest-hit U.S. states-Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey and New York-all of which, except Louisiana, shut down in three days or less.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
We ran a simple one-variable correlation of deaths per million and days to shutdown, which ranged from minus-10 days to 35 days for South Dakota, one of seven states with limited or no shutdown.
No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York.
Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%. That suggests New York City might have benefited from its shutdown-but blindly copying New York's policies in places with low Covid-19 death rates, such as my native Wisconsin, doesn't make sense.
Since people over 65 account for about 80% of Covid-19 deaths, Sweden asked only seniors to shelter in place rather than shutting down the rest of the country; and since Sweden had no pediatric deaths, it didn't shut down elementary and middle schools.
How did the Swedes do? They suffered 80 deaths per million 21 days after crossing the 1 per million threshold level.
With 10 million people, Sweden's death rate‒without a shutdown and massive unemployment‒is lower than that of the seven hardest-hit U.S. states-Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey and New York-all of which, except Louisiana, shut down in three days or less.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
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