Tuesday, October 1, 2019

MMT Is Coming Next And It Will Be Preceded By An Explosion In Volatility

That's when we see an enormous fiscal response, whether we call it MMT or not won't matter.

"When will the redistribution process really begins to manifest in markets? That's the question," said the CIO. "When it begins, there will be big trends to ride and leverage. That's what happens in phase shifts. Until then there's probably a tradeable move in bunds when yields jump on fiscal stimulus. That'll be short lived, then rates will grind more and more negative until we hit the crisis," he said.

People are focused on interest rate vol, but central bankers are terrified of rates rising.

FX implied volatility is near all-time lows and in a world where central banks are scared to hike to defend their exchange rates, currencies are where the volatility should first appear, and then the vol in equities will explode.

That's where the biggest structural shorts are.

"I'm not yet sure how to think about the conflict," said the same macro CIO. "I can imagine a world where East and West coexist peacefully, but I know some powerful people here who think the window is closing on America's ability to contain China and maintain military superiority," he said.

"That's the kind of worldview that leads to kinetic conflict. But the US misunderstands China. Ironically, it is strong now but will grow brittle as time passes," he said.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-you-should-be-buying-vol-mmt-coming-next-and-it-will-be-preceded-explosion

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