Although Russia has cemented its status as a Middle Eastern great power, economic weakness at home is eroding support for the intervention and Syria is a failed state trapped in a civil war.
Still, many Russians see military interventions in Syria and eastern Ukraine as costly "Foreign adventures." This reflects in part a growing unease that Russia is suffering another "Era of stagnation," a phrase that harkens to the poverty and torpor of the Brezhnev era.
Impecunious Russia may do little to help Syria rebuild.
The UN estimates reconstruction costs at $250 billion, about four times Syria's prewar GDP. Last year the French emphasized that the European Union will not help rebuild Syria "Unless apolitical transition is effectively carried out, with constitutional and electoral processes." The United States holds a similar view.
Russia will benefit more from intervention in Syria if fighting were to subside and economic progress to begin.
It will take time to assess the extent to which Russia has "Won" in Syria.
Absent a peaceful end to the conflict and an infusion of large-scale Western aid, downside risks for Russia could take some of the bloom off of its rose in Syria.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/russias-risky-game-plan-syria-91976
Still, many Russians see military interventions in Syria and eastern Ukraine as costly "Foreign adventures." This reflects in part a growing unease that Russia is suffering another "Era of stagnation," a phrase that harkens to the poverty and torpor of the Brezhnev era.
Impecunious Russia may do little to help Syria rebuild.
The UN estimates reconstruction costs at $250 billion, about four times Syria's prewar GDP. Last year the French emphasized that the European Union will not help rebuild Syria "Unless apolitical transition is effectively carried out, with constitutional and electoral processes." The United States holds a similar view.
Russia will benefit more from intervention in Syria if fighting were to subside and economic progress to begin.
It will take time to assess the extent to which Russia has "Won" in Syria.
Absent a peaceful end to the conflict and an infusion of large-scale Western aid, downside risks for Russia could take some of the bloom off of its rose in Syria.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/russias-risky-game-plan-syria-91976
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