Sunday, November 18, 2018

Trump the House Democrats, and the Politics of Inflation

Democrats about to control of the House of Representatives are as eager as President Trump to spend $200 billion over ten years on infrastructure, but the agreement on spending does not extend to an agreement on paying for all those bridges and roads.

New lenders know that is coming, and so already are demanding higher interest rates to compensate them for that risk.

The upswing in rates on government IOUs is sucking investment out of emerging economies, forcing them to raise their interest rates to prevent capital flight.

Two years from now, I will have to spend more to cover interest payments on what I have already borrowed than on medical costs.

I hope you find the current interest rate of a bit more than 3.1 percent on 10-year treasuries high enough to cover your risk, and 4.76 percent enough to persuade you to lend me money for 30 years so that I can buy a house.

Unless political peace breaks out, the only way politicians can meet interest payments is to let inflation rip, devalue the dollar.

Significantly higher growth might generate sufficient tax revenues to shrink the deficit to levels that investors do not find so scary as to force them to demand ever-higher interest rates in order to part with their cash.


https://www.weeklystandard.com/irwin-m-stelzer/trump-the-house-democrats-and-the-politics-of-inflation

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