The bears in the economics profession keep getting paid a lot of money misreading the nation's economic weather vanes - whether it was the power and durability of the Reagan expansion in the 1980s, the ferocious bull market of the late 1990s, the after-effects of the 9/11 attacks, or most recently the phenomenal revival of growth in President Donald Trump's first years in office.
Most of Wall Street's top economic gurus thought Trump would crash the stock market and the world economy, and here we are with near 4 percent growth over the past six months and a prediction for the year of close to 3.5 percent.
All of this is to say the recent frightening claims by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and other scribes that the economy is likely to slide into recession or a serious skid next year with growth of 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent - half our current pace - should be greeted with a collective yawn.
One reason Art Laffer, Larry Kudlow and I were so confident in our predictions to candidate Donald Trump that we could get four or five years of 3 to 4 percent growth was that the recovery from the Great Recession was so flat.
In the 1980s, we had quarters of 8 percent growth and years of above 5 percent growth.
The deregulation agenda under Trump is likely to accelerate in 2019 and 2020 as the one lever the Executive Branch has to clear roadblocks to growth.
Trump chief economist Larry Kudlow says that "a recession is so far in the distance I can't see it." Nor can I. The only ones who can see it are the Trump haters who want it to happen.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/27/the_recession_myth_138753.html
Most of Wall Street's top economic gurus thought Trump would crash the stock market and the world economy, and here we are with near 4 percent growth over the past six months and a prediction for the year of close to 3.5 percent.
All of this is to say the recent frightening claims by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and other scribes that the economy is likely to slide into recession or a serious skid next year with growth of 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent - half our current pace - should be greeted with a collective yawn.
One reason Art Laffer, Larry Kudlow and I were so confident in our predictions to candidate Donald Trump that we could get four or five years of 3 to 4 percent growth was that the recovery from the Great Recession was so flat.
In the 1980s, we had quarters of 8 percent growth and years of above 5 percent growth.
The deregulation agenda under Trump is likely to accelerate in 2019 and 2020 as the one lever the Executive Branch has to clear roadblocks to growth.
Trump chief economist Larry Kudlow says that "a recession is so far in the distance I can't see it." Nor can I. The only ones who can see it are the Trump haters who want it to happen.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/27/the_recession_myth_138753.html
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