Marco Rubio, for the first time, has vaulted to first place in Hotline‘s Republican presidential power rankings—but it’s a spot he holds only by a hair.
In our assessment of the candidates’ likelihood of winning the GOP nomination, Rubio leads a tightly bunched trio of at the front of the pack—with him, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump having a credible shot at becoming the party’s pick.
Rubio has emerged as the favorite of the party establishment, and has been gaining ground with college-educated voters both nationally and in the early states. Given the establishment’s strong track record in nominating its candidates, we’re giving Rubio a very narrow edge over two competitors, both of whom led him in Monday’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll and Saturday’s Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics. Trump has consolidated support from the blue-collar working-class wing of the party, and is gaining ground in the latest national polls, reflecting a public drawn to his tough talk at a time of widespread insecurity. And Cruz now looks like the front-runner in Iowa, leading the gold-standard Des Moines Register poll with a screen that has accurately anticipated who will be attending the caucuses.
This is the Republican top tier. In fact, there is only one other candidate—New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie—that we see with an outside opportunity to win the nomination, given the steady inroads that he’s making in New Hampshire. Everyone else has significant obstacles they need to overcome. Jeb Bush is losing momentum despite spending more money than anyone else, Ben Carson’s foreign policy inexperience is increasingly problematic, and John Kasich is doing little to woo conservatives even as his favorable ratings decline. Carly Fiorina’s support has collapsed.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/126034/2016-power-rankings-why-marco-rubio-has-inside-track?mref=home_top_main
In our assessment of the candidates’ likelihood of winning the GOP nomination, Rubio leads a tightly bunched trio of at the front of the pack—with him, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump having a credible shot at becoming the party’s pick.
Rubio has emerged as the favorite of the party establishment, and has been gaining ground with college-educated voters both nationally and in the early states. Given the establishment’s strong track record in nominating its candidates, we’re giving Rubio a very narrow edge over two competitors, both of whom led him in Monday’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll and Saturday’s Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics. Trump has consolidated support from the blue-collar working-class wing of the party, and is gaining ground in the latest national polls, reflecting a public drawn to his tough talk at a time of widespread insecurity. And Cruz now looks like the front-runner in Iowa, leading the gold-standard Des Moines Register poll with a screen that has accurately anticipated who will be attending the caucuses.
This is the Republican top tier. In fact, there is only one other candidate—New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie—that we see with an outside opportunity to win the nomination, given the steady inroads that he’s making in New Hampshire. Everyone else has significant obstacles they need to overcome. Jeb Bush is losing momentum despite spending more money than anyone else, Ben Carson’s foreign policy inexperience is increasingly problematic, and John Kasich is doing little to woo conservatives even as his favorable ratings decline. Carly Fiorina’s support has collapsed.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/126034/2016-power-rankings-why-marco-rubio-has-inside-track?mref=home_top_main
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