At last month's meeting, the ECB unveiled its much-awaited bond-buying program, dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT).
The announcement of the plan has served to keep government borrowing costs in check as market participants await a request from Spain for a formal bailout, which is a prerequisite for activating any sort of ECB bond market intervention through OMT.
So, what is expected from the ECB today, given that they've already unveiled their plan, and everyone is waiting on Spain?
Clarification on the details of OMT, mostly.
There are two details BofA Merrill Lynch economist Laurence Boone says the ECB could help clear up:
The announcement of the plan has served to keep government borrowing costs in check as market participants await a request from Spain for a formal bailout, which is a prerequisite for activating any sort of ECB bond market intervention through OMT.
So, what is expected from the ECB today, given that they've already unveiled their plan, and everyone is waiting on Spain?
Clarification on the details of OMT, mostly.
There are two details BofA Merrill Lynch economist Laurence Boone says the ECB could help clear up:
The ECB clarified the modus operandi of the OMT in a recent press release but failed to provide details on: 1)
what it deems to be appropriate yields; and 2) how it can proceed with
bond purchases in the 1-3 year range without distorting sovereign debt
duration.
Although the ECB will likely intervene to
keep yields within a range that preserves debt sustainability, it is
unlikely to reveal its preferences ahead of a country applying for
support, to preserve as much room to manoeuvre as possible when
intervening.
The ECB may provide some clarity on the
duration dilemma. We do not expect the ECB to purchase only the bonds
that were issued primarily before the OMT program. The available stock
of these bonds would likely be small as a significant share of the bonds
maturing by year-end 2015 may have been purchased under the SMP program
during the 2011 summer turbulence. A significant share of these bonds
may be pledged as collateral at the ECB. An alternative would be for the
ECB to request an issuance program as part of an MoU, thus ensuring
that the country preserves the duration of its debt and does not focus
issuance in the 1-3 year sector.
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