Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Swing State Round-Up

News and notes from  a few swing states and potential emerging battlegrounds:
Colorado: Romney 48, Obama 47.  (UPDATE - Same exact numbers, new from CNN.  Romney's +1 despite -- supposedly -- trailing with independents.  In their state polls, CNN has been one of the few pollsters that deviates significantly from the lockstep Romney dominance with indies).
Iowa: Mitt Romney is making his final stop on the stump in the Hawkeye State late this afternoon before effectively suspending his campaign through tomorrow, due to the hurricane.  The rally will feature Iowa wrestling icon Dan Gable.  The Republican nominee, who is in a very tight battle with the president in Iowa, is hoping to capitalize on sweeping all four major newspaper endorsements in the state.
Minnesota: This surprise contested-ish state will be getting more attention very soon.  Following reports that Team Romney is considering sending at least one member of the ticket to the state, the Obama campaign is dispatching Bill Clinton to hit the trail in Minnesota.  Both campaigns are on the air with ads.  The Washington Post has upgraded the state from a solid Obama state to "leans Obama."
Ohio: Saturday night brought news of a 49/49 tie.  Sunday saw PPP's questionable poll showing Obama cruising.  Today?  Two polls: (1) Gravis has Obama ahead by a single point, 50/49, with a D+8 sample.  (See here for some analysis on the partisan split).  (2) Rasmussen gives Romney the slight edge, 50-48.  This poll is somewhat anomalous because it is based on a sample of D+0 -- more favorable than most other polls -- but it gives Obama small lead with independents, while most other polling gives that advantage to Romney.  The Romney campaign is targeting Buckeye State voters with a new ad aimed at debunking Obama's attacks on the auto industry:

Read more: http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/10/29/swing_state_roundup

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