The presidential campaign is almost over, but don’t expect it to end
quietly. There’s a good chance the outcome will resemble that of the
2000 election: a late night, hanging chads or their equivalent, and
perhaps even a mismatch between the popular and electoral vote.
Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama among likely voters by 50 percent to 46 percent in the latest Gallup poll. Rasmussen has the race a bit closer at 50 percent to 47 percent. The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Romney with a slim 49 percent to 48 percent lead, and the RealClearPolitics polling average of likely voters has Romney up by nearly a percentage point.
Yet Obama is faring somewhat better in the battleground states that will decide the race for 270 electoral votes. Polls show him leading in Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada, among other swing states. He is still slightly ahead in the polling average for New Hampshire, and Romney and Obama are tied in Virginia and Colorado.
In that sense, this year’s election could be the inverse of 2000: there’s a non-trivial chance the Democrats may lose the popular vote but prevail in the Electoral College. And the contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore a dozen years ago was an important primer on which vote is constitutionally binding. Obama can lose the popular vote and still be reelected.
That this outcome is possible does not make it inevitable, of course. Neither Romney’s national lead nor Obama’s similarly small advantage in the swing states is insurmountable. If Romney holds on to his base vote and late deciders break in sufficient numbers for the challenger, he could win some combination of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Ohio in addition to the popular vote.
Read more: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/will-the-electoral-college-survive-2012/
Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama among likely voters by 50 percent to 46 percent in the latest Gallup poll. Rasmussen has the race a bit closer at 50 percent to 47 percent. The ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Romney with a slim 49 percent to 48 percent lead, and the RealClearPolitics polling average of likely voters has Romney up by nearly a percentage point.
Yet Obama is faring somewhat better in the battleground states that will decide the race for 270 electoral votes. Polls show him leading in Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada, among other swing states. He is still slightly ahead in the polling average for New Hampshire, and Romney and Obama are tied in Virginia and Colorado.
In that sense, this year’s election could be the inverse of 2000: there’s a non-trivial chance the Democrats may lose the popular vote but prevail in the Electoral College. And the contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore a dozen years ago was an important primer on which vote is constitutionally binding. Obama can lose the popular vote and still be reelected.
That this outcome is possible does not make it inevitable, of course. Neither Romney’s national lead nor Obama’s similarly small advantage in the swing states is insurmountable. If Romney holds on to his base vote and late deciders break in sufficient numbers for the challenger, he could win some combination of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Ohio in addition to the popular vote.
Read more: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/will-the-electoral-college-survive-2012/
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