Partisan Perceptions

Dispel from your mind the notion that the unemployment rate, by itself, drives voter opinions on the economy. A significant number of Americans’ perceptions of the economy are faith-based, or at least based on beliefs that are entirely separate from what the actual data say.

There is some dispute among political scientists as to when, precisely, Americans began to perceive whether the economy was improving or worsening through such an intensely partisan lens.
Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University, cites an example from 1988, finding that Republicans and Democrats had completely different perceptions regarding inflation:

Only 25% of Democrats (compared to 70% of Republicans) surveyed in 1988 thought that inflation had improved in the previous 8 years. Another interesting question is why only 70% of Republicans knew about the trend in inflation, but in any case we’re seeing huge partisan differences about an essentially factual question. (Yes, you can argue about the details of the definition of inflation, but by any measure it seems pretty clear that inflation declined between 1980 and 1988. My best guess at why people got this wrong is based on a conversation I had with Eric Snowberg and Rod Kiewiet, who conjecture that, when asked about the rate of inflation, people often respond by telling you about prices. From 1980 to 1988, prices went up, so it might be natural for some people to think this meant that inflation had gone up. Again, though, the point is that there are big differences between Democrats and Republicans in how they responded to the question.)

Read more: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/329280/partisan-perceptions-jim-geraghty