In assessing the economy, it's dangerous to rely upon any one data
series. None are infallible, and there will always be an exception to
any rule. Last week's durable goods orders were just awful, and
certainly looked like I would expect to see in a recession, but while
most manufacturing-related series are flat to declining, the rest of the
economy doesn't seem to want to cooperate. There are a whole bunch of
important facets of the economy that simply aren't playing along.
We all know that housing is one of the most important - and most leading - slices of economic activity. There has never been a recession without housing declining at least to a small degree months in advance. Well, here's the entire series for housing permits:
Not only is there no decline, but these have been in a steady rebound for almost two years.
Yesterday it was reported that more cars were sold in September - 15 million on an annualized basis - than at any month in the last 4 years. Here's car sales on a quarterly basis to smooth out noise, for the duration of the series:
We all know that housing is one of the most important - and most leading - slices of economic activity. There has never been a recession without housing declining at least to a small degree months in advance. Well, here's the entire series for housing permits:
Not only is there no decline, but these have been in a steady rebound for almost two years.
Yesterday it was reported that more cars were sold in September - 15 million on an annualized basis - than at any month in the last 4 years. Here's car sales on a quarterly basis to smooth out noise, for the duration of the series:
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