Thursday, August 2, 2012

Why August Will Determine Senate Control

August is usually a sleepy month in politics. Congress leaves Washington for its annual summer recess, and campaigning takes a back seat as voters, more concerned with their own vacations than with statewide elections, tune out. But that’s not the case this year. When the 113th Congress gavels into session in January, the party that controls the Senate will credit key primaries this month with handing them power.
The stakes are high for Republicans. Four states with competitive races hold GOP primaries over the next four weeks. And while the tone of a primary campaign rarely dictates the outcome in the fall, the candidates who emerge from those primaries will either help or hinder their party's chances to win the four seats necessary to take over the upper chamber.
That makes the Republican primaries in Wisconsin, Missouri, Connecticut, and Arizona worth watching.
Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri remains the most vulnerable Democrat seeking reelection this year. A recent St. Louis Post-Dispatch survey showed her trailing all three of her possible competitors -- Rep. Todd Akin, businessman John Brunner, and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman -- between 5 and 11 percentage points. In the same poll, more Missourians said they view McCaskill unfavorably than favorably, highlighting her vulnerability.

Read more: http://nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/why-august-will-determine-senate-control-20120802

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