Over at Aporia magazine, Noah Carl used the General Social Survey to examine the political preferences of different American ancestry groups.
Identifying each group's peak year of migration would be ideal, but information on the foreign-born population is scant prior to the Civil War, and in some cases it would be difficult to align the ancestry group categories in the GSS with birth countries.
Each ancestry group's tenure by how many U.S.-born grandparents its members report in the GSS. Close to 100 percent of the most tenured groups' grandparents will be U.S.-born, while more recent arrivals will have less.
Figure 1 places each major ancestry group on a scatterplot, where the vertical axis is percentage conservative, and the horizontal axis is tenure as measured by U.S.-born grandparents.
How long will that boost last? One interpretation of Figures 1 and 2 is that political assimilation does occur - albeit slowly - such that the grandchildren or great-grandchildren of today's immigrants will vote as the NW European ancestry group does today.
Figure 3 takes individuals from the three ancestry groups for which sufficient data exist and breaks out their Republican identification by the number of U.S.-born grandparents they have.
Figure 3 is derived from an individual-level logistic regression of Republican party identification on the following independent variables: age group in 10-year intervals, decade of interview, the main effect of tenure, the main effect of ancestry group, and the interaction of tenure and ancestry group.
https://cis.org/Richwine/How-Immigration-Upsets-Political-Balance
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