There are three likely explanations for the unexpected results
- Late campaign surges
- Polling error
- Ballot-harvesting
- Aggressive ballot harvesting
- A late surge
- People voted for Democrats because they feared the end of democracy, hated Donald Trump, and were angered by the Dobbs abortion decision.
- They saw more anti-Republican campaign ads
- Due to financing differences, they were turned off by the poor quality GOP candidates
- These factors were baked into the cake long before the election and long before pre-election voter polls were administered. They were not last-minute issues.
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