Is the Official COVID-19 Death Toll Accurate?

Excess Deaths The main argument of those who claim that the official C-19 death tally is an undercount is based on a factor called "Excess deaths." This is defined as the total number of deaths from all causes during the pandemic minus the number of deaths that would normally occur at this time of the year.

In the words of the Government Accountability Office, "Examining higher-than-expected deaths from all causes helps to address limitations in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths because the number of total deaths is likely more accurate than the numbers of deaths from specific causes." U.S. death certificate data shows that the rise in deaths during the pandemic has indeed been greater than the number of reported C-19 deaths.

On the same day Stelter made this claim, the CDC's website stated that its C-19 "Case counts and death counts" have included "Both confirmed and probable cases and deaths" since April 14.

On the first update, the CDC reported that 27,012 people had died from C-19 as of April 15, including 22,871 "Confirmed" and 4,141 "Probable." On the second update, the CDC reported that 31,071 people had died from C-19 as of April 15, including 26,930 "Confirmed" and 4,141 "Probable." Taken at face value, the second update shows that CDC's insertion of "Probable" cases raised the death count from 26,930 to 31,071, or by 15%. From a more skeptical standpoint, the difference between the 22,871 "Confirmed" deaths on the first update and the 31,071 "Confirmed and probable" deaths on the second update amounts to a 36% rise caused by these bookkeeping modifications.

An article about the study from Virginia Commonwealth University summarizes its findings and quotes the researchers as follows: Some excess deaths "May reflect under-reporting" or "Patients with COVID-19 who died from related complications," "But a third possibility, the one we're quite concerned about is" the "Spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress." In the five states that that had the most COVID-19 deaths in March and April: stroke deaths were 35% above normal.

A California-based ABC News station reported in May: "Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus." Mike deBoisblanc, head of the trauma unit at the hospital stated that he's "Seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks," and "Mental health is suffering so much" that he says "It is time to end the shelter-in-place order." A scientific survey conducted by the CDC in July 2020 found that about 32% of U.S. adults had "Symptoms of anxiety disorder" as compared to 8% around the same time last year.

Four weeks after the World Health Organization declared C-19 a pandemic, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House COVID-19 task force, stated that the U.S. is taking a "Very liberal approach" to counting C-19 deaths compared to "Some countries." She then explained that "If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death." Notably, that standard does not distinguish between dying from COVID-19 and dying with COVID-19.

Certain evidence suggests they are not a large portion of the total: Contrary to Birx's statement in March, the CDC issued guidance in early April that states: "Not all conditions present at the time of death have to be reported-only those conditions that actually contributed to death." The CDC posted that guidance on April 3 when the official C-19 death count was 5,443 people, or less than one-thirtieth of the current tally.

Mississippi says: "If COVID-19 was unrelated to the cause of death and not a contributing factor, it should not be included" on the death certificate.

The CDC's guidance for certifying C-19 deaths provides three examples of how to record them on death certificates, one of which involves an 86-year-old female who was never tested for C-19, had a debilitating stroke three years before her death, and passed on with "a high fever and severe cough after being exposed to an ill family member who subsequently was diagnosed with COVID-19." The guidance states the "Underlying cause of death," or the pivotal factor that led to her death, should be listed as "Probable COVID-19." However, many other diseases can cause a fever and cough, and a recent CDC study shows it is not uncommon for people to display symptoms of C-19 but test negative for it.

The Mississippi Department of Health states: "If the patient was a confirmed COVID-19 case, but COVID-19 contributed to but did not cause the death, such as stroke," C-19 should be listed in Part II of the death certificate.

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/09/25/is-the-official-covid-19-death-toll-accurate/