President Donald Trump took a victory lap Friday after the release of a strong second-quarter gross-domestic-product number, and early signs point to the celebration continuing in the third quarter.
The second-quarter reading of 4.1% GDP growth was the highest since 2014, and both the White House and the GOP pointed to it as evidence that Trump's policies were boosting the US economy.
There are early indications that Trump may have reason to boast about the third quarter too.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model, which uses available economic data to predict the current quarter's GDP growth, stood at 5% on Thursday, up slightly from an initial estimate of 4.7%. The model has a strong track record.
While Dutta said it was "Unlikely that we'll get 5% for the third quarter," the economist noted that the average move for the GDPNow reading over the course of a quarter since its inception was a drop of 0.6 percentage points.
Per Dutta's breakdown, the biggest downward move in the GDPNow's estimate over the course of a quarter was 2.2 percentage points, which would still leave third-quarter GDP growth at a respectable 2.5%. On the other end, the largest upward move was 1.5 percentage points, so an equal move from the initial estimate would put the third quarter at 6.2%. That would be the highest quarterly GDP print since the third quarter of 2003.
The 4.1% GDP reading in the second quarter was above the Atlanta Fed's final estimate of 3.8%. Trump, for his part, is already banking on a big third-quarter reading, set to be released October 26.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-gdp-growth-q3-third-quarter-strong-2018-8
The second-quarter reading of 4.1% GDP growth was the highest since 2014, and both the White House and the GOP pointed to it as evidence that Trump's policies were boosting the US economy.
There are early indications that Trump may have reason to boast about the third quarter too.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model, which uses available economic data to predict the current quarter's GDP growth, stood at 5% on Thursday, up slightly from an initial estimate of 4.7%. The model has a strong track record.
While Dutta said it was "Unlikely that we'll get 5% for the third quarter," the economist noted that the average move for the GDPNow reading over the course of a quarter since its inception was a drop of 0.6 percentage points.
Per Dutta's breakdown, the biggest downward move in the GDPNow's estimate over the course of a quarter was 2.2 percentage points, which would still leave third-quarter GDP growth at a respectable 2.5%. On the other end, the largest upward move was 1.5 percentage points, so an equal move from the initial estimate would put the third quarter at 6.2%. That would be the highest quarterly GDP print since the third quarter of 2003.
The 4.1% GDP reading in the second quarter was above the Atlanta Fed's final estimate of 3.8%. Trump, for his part, is already banking on a big third-quarter reading, set to be released October 26.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-gdp-growth-q3-third-quarter-strong-2018-8
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