Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Germany: Export and Import Numbers Declined in April 2012

There is only one number in the April 2012 balance of trade numbers for Germany that shows effects of the Eurozone crisis:  The balance of trade surplus with the rest of the Eurozone.  According to a report in Finfacts Ireland the balance of trade surplus with the rest of the Eurozone countries shrank to a mere €300 million, only 2 % of the overall surplus of €14.4 billion.  (Note:  The exact numbers can be reviewed in the press release from the Bundesbank, shown later.)  The rest of the trade numbers all seem within normal historic ranges.
Follow up:
How did Germany manage to continue to maintain a large trade surplus?  It was because of a 10.3% increase in exports to the rest of the world outside the EU.  This number is up even more for the first four months of 2012, 11.0% higher year-over-year.
There is perhaps a second area in the data showing for April that might reflect on the economic problems in Europe.  Imports were down from all parts of the world after being up strongly for the first quarter.  This will need to be watched for follow through – it might be a one month anomaly.
The following graph shows the recent export/import data history for Germany.  There is nothing yet indicating problems for Germany from the euro crisis.

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