There is only one number in the April 2012 balance of trade numbers for
Germany that shows effects of the Eurozone crisis: The balance of trade surplus with the rest of the Eurozone. According to a report in Finfacts Ireland
the balance of trade surplus with the rest of the Eurozone countries
shrank to a mere €300 million, only 2 % of the overall surplus of €14.4
billion. (Note: The exact numbers can be reviewed in the press release
from the Bundesbank, shown later.) The rest of the trade numbers all
seem within normal historic ranges.
Follow up:
How
did Germany manage to continue to maintain a large trade surplus? It
was because of a 10.3% increase in exports to the rest of the world
outside the EU. This number is up even more for the first four months
of 2012, 11.0% higher year-over-year.
There
is perhaps a second area in the data showing for April that might
reflect on the economic problems in Europe. Imports were down from all
parts of the world after being up strongly for the first quarter. This
will need to be watched for follow through – it might be a one month
anomaly.
The
following graph shows the recent export/import data history for
Germany. There is nothing yet indicating problems for Germany from the
euro crisis.
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