With the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold
Obamacare, the issue now shifts to the elected branches of government
and raises this question: Will the intense opposition dissipate or will
it lead to a fervent new effort to repeal the liberal health care law?
Polls
show that opposition to Obamacare has increased since it was passed in
2010. Then, it played a huge role in the Republican landslide in the
midterm congressional election. In that campaign, Republican candidates
were unified in the support for repealing Obamacare.
And the Tea Party movement that erupted in 2009 was
also a strong force in the opposition to the health care stature.
Since the 2010 election, however, the Tea Party was become less active,
at least in staging public demonstrations.
Will the 5-4 decision revive the Tea Party? Will
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney make Obamacare the
centerpiece of his campaign against Obama? Will GOP candidates do the
same?
Unless the answer to those questions is “yes,” the
court’s decision may turn out to be the pivotal moment in legitimizing
Obamacare, improving its public support as reflected in opinion polls,
and embedding it firmly into the American health care system.
My guess, for what it’s worth, is that the
anti-Obamacare movement will recover and make health care the most
salient issue in the 2012 campaign. Then its fate will depend on who
wins the White House.
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