There is only marginal correlation between economic activity,
recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling
going into a recession. Econintersect follows this data series to
adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are
clear relationships.
However, in May 2012 – the unusual event of both import and export prices showing year-over-year deflation warrants a closer look historically into this index. Export / Import prices have deflated several times without a recession occurring – however, deflation is a recession warning flag.
The story remains the continually moderating year-over-year inflation – however, this moderating cycle should shortly end. Exports are down 0.1% year-over-year and imports down 0.3% (up 1.0% if oil is excluded).
May 2012 export prices fell 0.4% month-over-month while import prices fell 1.0%. The May’s in import prices was mostly due to decline in price of fuels, while the fall in export prices was driven by agriculture products.
Read more: http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=22951
However, in May 2012 – the unusual event of both import and export prices showing year-over-year deflation warrants a closer look historically into this index. Export / Import prices have deflated several times without a recession occurring – however, deflation is a recession warning flag.
The story remains the continually moderating year-over-year inflation – however, this moderating cycle should shortly end. Exports are down 0.1% year-over-year and imports down 0.3% (up 1.0% if oil is excluded).
May 2012 export prices fell 0.4% month-over-month while import prices fell 1.0%. The May’s in import prices was mostly due to decline in price of fuels, while the fall in export prices was driven by agriculture products.
Read more: http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=22951
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