If climate models were on trial - and they should be - that doubt would be magnified by a new post from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, which confirms "Models may overestimate warming."
"Today's climate models are showing more warmth than their predecessors, forecasting an even hotter future for the same rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. But a paper published this week highlights how models may err on the side of too much warming: Earth's warming clouds cool the surface more than anticipated, the German-led team reported in Nature Climate Change," says CIRES. Jennifer Kay, a CIRES fellow and an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at Colorado University, says "The increase in climate sensitivity from the last generation of climate models should be taken with a huge grain of salt."
The paper itself suggests that "Reliable climate model projections" need improvement and ought to be "Guided by process-oriented observations and observational constraints."
"Data continue to confound naïve climate models. Very difficult theory is slowly but surely explaining why. The climate debate is back to the physical science, where it never should have left."
The inadequacy of climate models is not a new discovery.
In the late 1990s, Gerald North, a Texas A&M University climate scientist, said "We do not know much about modeling climate," that modeling's results "Could also be sociological: getting the socially acceptable answer," and that "There is quite a bit of slack here."
Uncertainty was fueled again last year, when a pair of "Peer-reviewed papers from independent teams" argued "That climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better."
https://issuesinsights.com/2021/06/28/putting-climate-models-on-trial/
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