Monday, March 2, 2020

Media Coverage and Coronavirus Panic: What the Numbers Show

The Jan. 1-Feb. 28 timeline below compares worldwide Google search interest for the coronavirus against worldwide online news coverage in 65 languages using data from the GDELT Project, along with mentions on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News using data from the Internet Archive's Television News Archive processed by GDELT. To overlay the three timelines onto a single graph, they were converted to "Z-scores," which report the number of standard deviations from the mean.

Globally, a quarter of economic news coverage mentions the coronavirus in some way, reflecting its outsized impact on the world economy.

Looking closely at the timeline above, both online news and online search interest appear to increase at nearly the same time in January, with news coverage slightly beating search interest during last week's surge.

Zooming in to the period when interest really accelerated, the timeline below compares the hourly Z-scores of worldwide Google Trends search interest and online news coverage from Feb. 18 to Feb. 25, using a six-hour rolling average to smooth the data.

A closer inspection shows that once interest begins to increase on Feb. 22, news coverage tends to lead search interest by several hours, with each increase in media coverage leading to a similar increase in search interest later that day.

The strong similarity between online news and search interest and the fact that news increases appear to lead search interest certainly lends weight to the argument that the media have helped fan the flames of panic around the disease's spread. Nowhere has this public response been more apparent than in the mass purchasing of "N95" face masks.

Both online news and search interest show the same upward trajectory beginning Jan. 21, but news coverage increases faster and does not peak until Feb. 2, two full days after the searches peak.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/02/media_coverage_and_coronavirus_panic_what_the_numbers_show_142539.html

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