The bear case for U.S. stocks is getting more compelling by the day, according to Bloomberg macro strategist Mark Cudmore.
Amid an intensifying tit-for-tat on trade, it should be increasingly clear to even the most optimistic of analysts that any deal between the U.S. and China will be very difficult to achieve and is by no means imminent.
Equity strategists mostly remain in denial but, at some point, they will speak to their eco colleagues and slash earnings forecasts, making overvalued U.S. stocks appear even more expensive.
Never mind the U.S. seems determined to also pick a fight with its second-largest trading partner with the threat of imminent tariffs on Mexico.
Policy uncertainty will linger, prompting business owners to hold back capital expenditure and encourage supply chains to bypass the U.S. And then there's the marginal negative of removing tariff exemptions on India, the world's fifth-largest economy.
One of the reasons stock prices are higher is the rates market is now pricing even more exceptional easing, with 2-year yields trading more than 60 basis points below the policy rate.
Bear markets are always difficult to trade and bear market rallies can be savage.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs
Amid an intensifying tit-for-tat on trade, it should be increasingly clear to even the most optimistic of analysts that any deal between the U.S. and China will be very difficult to achieve and is by no means imminent.
Equity strategists mostly remain in denial but, at some point, they will speak to their eco colleagues and slash earnings forecasts, making overvalued U.S. stocks appear even more expensive.
Never mind the U.S. seems determined to also pick a fight with its second-largest trading partner with the threat of imminent tariffs on Mexico.
Policy uncertainty will linger, prompting business owners to hold back capital expenditure and encourage supply chains to bypass the U.S. And then there's the marginal negative of removing tariff exemptions on India, the world's fifth-largest economy.
One of the reasons stock prices are higher is the rates market is now pricing even more exceptional easing, with 2-year yields trading more than 60 basis points below the policy rate.
Bear markets are always difficult to trade and bear market rallies can be savage.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs
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