Sunday, March 11, 2018

Gilded Age Today: The Second Era of No Decision

Morris Fiorina, the author of Unstable Majorities: Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemate, told me that the politics of the Gilded Age are characterized as the "Era of No Decision" because of the unstable majorities that blew in and out of Congress between 1874 and 1894.

Presidents during the Era of No Decision rarely won with a majority of the vote, just as, during this second Era of No Decision, presidents have won more than 50 percent in only three of seven elections.

We have had united Democratic control and united Republican control, Republican presidents with Democratic Congresses and Democratic presidents with Republican Congresses, and both Republican and Democratic presidents with Congresses split between the parties.

Fiorina's research has shown that the parties of the Era of No Decision were just as sorted as our own.

"In short," Fiorina concludes, "The interaction between the close party divide and today's well-sorted parties leads to 'overreach,' with predictable electoral repercussions. The center does hold, frustrating the governing attempts of both parties."

What is interesting is that the Era of No Decision ended when Bryan and the Populists captured the Democratic party, creating inroads for Republicans among groups alienated by Bryan and open to McKinley's economic message.

Still, as I write, the most probable scenario is that Democrats will win the 24 seats necessary to take over the House, and the Second Era of No Decision will continue indefinitely.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/gilded-age-today-second-era-no-decision/ 

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