Sunday, November 22, 2015

Of Paris and (Would-Be) Presidents

Last week’s ter­ror­ist at­tacks in Par­is amoun­ted to a 9/11 event for the French and, for Amer­ic­ans, a vivid memory of that hor­rif­ic day 14 years ago. It also re­minds us that we could very well have an­oth­er—ex­perts say it’s al­most in­ev­it­able. So, what ef­fect will the tragedy in Par­is have on the U.S. pres­id­en­tial cam­paign and next year’s elec­tion? The short an­swer: Ask me again in 50 weeks.
But let’s parse the pos­sib­il­it­ies. While Don­ald Trump’s blunt­ness—“I would bomb the shit out of them”—eli­cited some huzzahs, it seems likely that the mas­sacres in Par­is will in­ject a de­gree of ser­i­ous­ness in­to the cam­paign that hasn’t been evid­ent dur­ing the past five months.
But how ser­i­ous, and how long might it last? Which can­did­ates, and which party, might this help or hurt? These are tough­er calls. They’re al­most like a Rorschach test: What you see de­pends on who you are and what you already be­lieve.
Think about Hil­lary Clin­ton. Some would con­clude that she’ll be helped polit­ic­ally be­cause of her cre­den­tial as a former sec­ret­ary of State. Un­less, that is, she is seen as an ar­chi­tect of a policy that has demon­strably not worked.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/99732/paris-would-be-presidents

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